NFL Week 9 Survivor Pool Picks, Advice, and Strategy

May 2024 · 6 minute read

NFL betting analyst Nick Galaida breaks down Week 9 Survivor Pool strategy, previewing the safest picks of the week as well as teams who may be in store for an upset.

NFL Week 9 Survivor Picks, Strategy

Traditionally, survivor pools require participants to simply pick the winner of one NFL game straight up each week. The challenging part of eliminator tournaments is that you can only use a team once during the season. In 2021, this means that you will need to select 18 of the 32 teams to finish the regular season, so there will be weeks during which you will not be able to have an elite roster at your disposal.

In Week 1, we said that it made sense to burn an elite team, the Los Angeles Rams, to start off the year with a victory. We successfully burned another elite team in Week 2—the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. In Week 3, we used a less notable team—the Denver Broncos in an extremely favorable matchup at home against a rookie quarterback. In Week 4, we took advantage of another team with a favorable matchup, the Buffalo Bills at home against an inexperienced signal caller. In Week 5, we took our first semi-risky play of the year, the Dallas Cowboys against their division rival. In Week 6, we successfully bet on some positive regression from and the Kansas City Chiefs. In Week 7, we finally burned the undefeated Arizona Cardinals in a favorable home matchup against the hapless Houston Texans. In Week 8, we took an admittedly risky opportunity to pick against a young quarterback making his first career start, but a 13-point blown lead in the fourth quarter ended our string of good fortune.

For the remainder of the NFL season, we will simply be outlining our top few eliminator options for those who remain in their tournaments.

Week 1: Los Angeles Rams
Week 2: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Week 3: Denver Broncos
Week 4: Buffalo Bills
Week 5: Dallas Cowboys
Week 6: Kansas City Chiefs
Week 7: Arizona Cardinals
Week 8: Cincinnati Bengals

Each week in this article, we discuss red flags to try to avoid when selecting your eliminator team of the week. As a general rule, it is best to avoid six contexts when considering options for a survivor league:

1. Intra-division games
2. Prime Time games
3. Away teams with poor defenses
4. Non-elite teams playing on a short week
5. Non-elite teams with a rest disadvantage
6. Teams who are playing an opponent off of their bye week

In Week 9, there are a few big favorites worth considering, including the Buffalo Bills (-14.5), Indianapolis Colts (-10.5), Dallas Cowboys (-9.5), Los Angeles Rams (-7.5), Kansas City Chiefs (-7.5), and the Miami Dolphins (-6.5). Let’s take a closer look at each contest to see which are the safest, and which are the most risky options for Week 9.

Read more: Week 9 Pick’em Pool Confidence Rankings

Safest Pick in Week 9

Bills (vs. Jaguars)

The Jacksonville Jaguars have not won a game on American soil in 417 days. Their lone victory this season came in Week 6 in London against the Miami Dolphins. Buffalo has been a juggernaut this fall, defeating five of their opponents by 15 or more points, with their only losses coming to the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Tennessee Titans, by one score each. is firmly entrenched in the MVP discussions and gets to face a Jacksonville defense that has allowed 11 touchdowns and a 113.5 passer rating to opposing signal callers in 2021. Buffalo is a safe pick this Sunday.

Colts (vs. Jets)

The Colts are far from a juggernaut, but they are also a safe option in Week 9. Considering that eliminator teams force participants to select each team only once, it could make perfect sense to utilize Indianapolis in their Thursday Night Football matchup against the New York Jets, who are allowing a 102.9 passer rating and a 10-to-1 touchdown to interception ratio through the air this year. The Colts are yet to lose to a weak team this season, beating the Miami Dolphins by 10 points and the Houston Texans by 28 points. and company should have little trouble defending home turf in this one.

Rams (vs. Titans)

The Rams played poorly in Week 7, but still managed to defeat the New York Giants on the road in an east coast time zone by 27 points. The Rams once again played poorly in Week 8 against the Detroit Lions in revenge game, but still managed to escape with a win. Los Angeles used a matchup with the Houston Texans as an opportunity to take out some recent frustration in a dominating way—leading 38-0 at the end of the third quarter before taking out the majority of the starters. continues to be a perfect fit in Sean McVay’s up-tempo offense. In a home matchup against the injury-plagued Tennessee Titans, the Rams are a great option in you still have them available to use.

Chiefs (vs. Packers)

Kansas City has been abysmal on both ends of the football in recent weeks, but it is hard to imagine them losing to at home this Sunday. Though the Chiefs have struggled against both the run and the pass this fall, the Green Bay Packers using a backup quarterback with questionable tags on and make for an appealing matchup. has been reckless with the football in 2021, but his arm talent is still undeniable. He has elite pass catchers in and . The Packers are dealing with injuries on both sides of the ball. It might be a sweat, but Kansas City should emerge victorious in this one.

Survivor Pool Upset Watch

Each week, we will examine one team that is a heavy favorite and discuss why they could be a slightly more risky option than the other teams that people are considering in their survivor and eliminator pools. In Week 4, we identified the eight-point favorite Baltimore Ravens as being on upset alert. It took a 4th and 19 conversion on the final drive and an NFL record 66-yard field goal as time expired for them to avoid a loss to the underdog Detroit Lions. In Week 5, we said to beware of the Cincinnati Bengals, who trailed 14-0 at halftime and only barely squeaked out a 24-21 victory on Thursday Night Football. In Week 6, we once again said to prepare for a stressful day if selecting the Ravens, who trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter against the Colts. In Week 7, we warned bettors not to fall for the bait on the Buffalo Bills, who were touchdown favorites but ended up losing outright to the Tennessee Titans. In Week 8, we told you to stay away from the Kansas City Chiefs, who trailed by 17-14 late into the fourth quarter. Stay away from these stressful situations when you can help it.

Let’s take a look at this week’s big favorite that could be in for a tougher contest than oddsmakers are suggesting.

Dolphins (vs. Texans)

It is tempting to fade the Houston Texans each week in an eliminator tournament, but it could be an extremely risky proposition this Sunday. The Miami Dolphins have lost seven consecutive games, including losses to the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons—who have a combined four wins between them. At this point in the season, Miami is not much better than Houston. Do not let a touchdown spread at sportsbooks fool you into making a poor decision in this spot in Week 9.

Image Credit: Imagn

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